The difficulty of predictions

Posted Thursday, April 5, 2012, at 4:02 PM

I enjoy John C. Dvorak's columns in various computer magazines and web sites and always look forward to his frequent appearances on Leo Laporte's This Week In Tech podcast. But in a recent Forbes article about the seeming demise of Blackberry, someone pointed out a 2007 column by Dvorak as an example of how difficult the world of technology can be to predict, and how rapidly it changes:

These phones go in and out of style so fast that unless Apple has half a dozen variants in the pipeline, its phone, even if immediately successful, will be passé within 3 months.
There is no likelihood that Apple can be successful in a business this competitive. Even in the business where it is a clear pioneer, the personal computer, it had to compete with Microsoft and can only sustain a 5% market share.

Dvorak was sure that Apple's soon-to-be-introduced product would be a flash in the pan, unable to compete with then-dominant Motorola and Nokia.

Something called the iPhone.

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Did he ever acknowledge his lack of futuristic vision?

-- Posted by stevemills on Thu, Apr 5, 2012, at 10:48 PM

I don't know. Of course, I doubt he was the only one expressing such opinions.

-- Posted by Jicarney on Fri, Apr 6, 2012, at 10:52 AM

I can understand, I am still betting on the printed word against the Kindle and such.

-- Posted by stevemills on Sat, Apr 7, 2012, at 8:23 AM

I have to say, I love my Kindle -- and I've done more reading in the past two months than I did in the past two years.

-- Posted by Jicarney on Sat, Apr 7, 2012, at 5:34 PM

John, John, say it isn't so!

-- Posted by stevemills on Sat, Apr 7, 2012, at 8:08 PM

Seriously. I bought the basic $79 Kindle with part of my tax refund, and it's one of the best purchases I've ever made. I found out today that a co-worker's spouse has just gotten one, and I was so excited, giving him all the links where you can find out which books are free or on sale, or where you can borrow Kindle books through the library. My brother in North Carolina feels the same way you do, but the Kindle has been great for my reading.

-- Posted by Jicarney on Sat, Apr 7, 2012, at 9:52 PM

I agree with Johm I got the Kindle Fire for my birthday and I love it.. I too seem to be reading more now than I ever did. I am just finishing up the Hunger Games and all I can say is WOW

-- Posted by Dianatn on Fri, Apr 13, 2012, at 10:29 AM

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John I. Carney is city editor of the Times-Gazette.

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