I enjoy John C. Dvorak's columns in various computer magazines and web sites and always look forward to his frequent appearances on Leo Laporte's This Week In Tech podcast. But in a recent Forbes article about the seeming demise of Blackberry, someone pointed out a 2007 column by Dvorak as an example of how difficult the world of technology can be to predict, and how rapidly it changes:
These phones go in and out of style so fast that unless Apple has half a dozen variants in the pipeline, its phone, even if immediately successful, will be passť within 3 months.
There is no likelihood that Apple can be successful in a business this competitive. Even in the business where it is a clear pioneer, the personal computer, it had to compete with Microsoft and can only sustain a 5% market share.
Dvorak was sure that Apple's soon-to-be-introduced product would be a flash in the pan, unable to compete with then-dominant Motorola and Nokia.
Something called the iPhone.