Emergency planners brace for bird flu pandemic

Impact of flu pandemic could be massive

Scott Johnson (T-G Photo by Brian Mosely) [Click to enlarge] [Order this photo]

"We're not trying to be paranoid, we're trying to be prudent."

Those are the words of Scott Johnson, director of Bedford County Emergency Agency, about the planning his department is doing to prepare for the day when the avian flu, or "bird flu", becomes pandemic.

And many experts agree -- it is not a matter of if but when a deadly outbreak of the virus will occur.

Currently, the H5N1 strain of the virus that can be passed from person to person has a 61.8 percent fatality rate.

"This could be very serious," Johnson said.

County and city leaders were briefed last week on preparation efforts by Johnson; Dr. Carl Bailey, who is the avian influenza planning project manager for the county; and Lynn Burns, emergency response coordinator for Tennessee Department of Health. Another meeting is scheduled Sept. 18.

Johnson said the state health department has devised a plan that specifies what the local responsibilities would be when an avian flu outbreak occurs. As a result, Johnson said that Bedford County has become "more robust" in planning over the past 12 months.

Dr. Carl Bailey (T-G Photo by Brian Mosely) [Click to enlarge] [Order this photo]

"We've come up with a game plan; mostly, our job is resource management," Johnson said, such as looking at what volunteer help would be available as well as facilities that would be used in the event of an outbreak.

Two years ago, Bell Buckle formed an avian flu preparedness committee to look at what would have to be done in the event of a pandemic, focusing on the needs of their neighbors and the situations in different households. The county's plan involves working with the school system, industry, retail businesses and the health department.

The county and state will have four areas of responsibility: Actual disaster management, which will be run from the EMA building on Railroad Avenue; community volunteerism; medical community awareness; and training to manage a pandemic.

"A pandemic is a completely different animal," Bailey said. The 1918 Spanish flu, the 1947 Asian flu and the 1973 swine flu are considered pandemics. Compared to the annual flu, there is a much higher risk of fatality with the pandemic outbreaks.

"Viruses replicate themselves," according to Dr. Bailey. "One thing we do know is that viruses exist for one reason only, and that's to exist." Once a virus is stimulated by an uncomfortable environment, it will adjust to it, and Bailey says one of the adjustments that the H5N1 virus has made is that it is now transmissible through human cell receptors to other humans.

"That's a big leap that no one hoped we would see," Bailey said. "That appears to be what has happened."

The latest outbreak of the deadly virus is in Pakistan. Bailey said there is no evidence that it is passed from birds to humans, but rather from person to person. The H5N1 virus is no longer just in birds, but also in dogs, along with some cat species in northern Europe, he added.

The H5N1 strain reemerged in the human population in the year 2000 in Thailand. "Since that time to date, 61.8 percent is the mortality rate that the world population has experienced in these very sporadic outbreaks around the world," Bailey explained.

The only thing that approaches that high fatality rate was the Black Plague of the Middle Ages, he added. The 1918 flu pandemic killed about 55 million worldwide in a nine to ten month period. "The U.S. lost 680,000 during that timeframe," Bailey said.

The 1918 outbreak was complicated by the fact there was no vaccine for it. But today there are medications that will "somewhat mitigate" the illness and keep the death toll down. Two companies are doing "great work" in creating a vaccine, but if the virus changes again, it would be useless.

One problem that affects Bedford County more than any other location in the state is the population of privately-owned chickens, with more than one million "backyard chickens" or "ground flocks" in the county.

Commercial poultry operations, such as those which supply Tyson, are enclosed and in a controlled environment, with the birds being vaccinated three times during their 11.5-week life cycle, and thereby pose a reduced risk.

The state agriculture department says that there is twice the commercial chicken production in Bedford County than any other county in Tennessee, Bailey explained. However, the backyard birds can average in number from 15 to 500 at any location.

Bailey said the backyard chickens have interaction with wild birds through water sources like ponds and streams, "and there is a very definite transmission route there." Bailey said that situation causes him more concern than commercial chicken operations.

During a recent briefing in Nashville, Bailey was told by the state agriculture department that the H5N1 virus has already been found in the remains of dead birds in Tennessee. The state is directly in the path of the flyover route for many birds heading south for the winter, Bailey explained.

"Those birds are the Typhoid Mary," Bailey said. "They don't get sick, but they carry it." But Bailey added that he doesn't want to panic the public, explaining that the infected birds carry a "low pathology" version of the virus, in which there is a low threat of death to humans.

Part 2 will cover what the public could expect to see when a pandemic occurs. More information about Avian Flu and pandemics can be found at www.pandemicflu.gov .