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Emergency planners brace for bird flu pandemic

Monday, May 19, 2008
By Brian Mosely

Also: Avian Flu: A Primer

Impact of flu pandemic could be massive

Scott Johnson
(T-G Photo by Brian Mosely)
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"We're not trying to be paranoid, we're trying to be prudent."

Those are the words of Scott Johnson, director of Bedford County Emergency Agency, about the planning his department is doing to prepare for the day when the avian flu, or "bird flu", becomes pandemic.

And many experts agree -- it is not a matter of if but when a deadly outbreak of the virus will occur.

Currently, the H5N1 strain of the virus that can be passed from person to person has a 61.8 percent fatality rate.

"This could be very serious," Johnson said.

County and city leaders were briefed last week on preparation efforts by Johnson; Dr. Carl Bailey, who is the avian influenza planning project manager for the county; and Lynn Burns, emergency response coordinator for Tennessee Department of Health. Another meeting is scheduled Sept. 18.

Johnson said the state health department has devised a plan that specifies what the local responsibilities would be when an avian flu outbreak occurs. As a result, Johnson said that Bedford County has become "more robust" in planning over the past 12 months.

Dr. Carl Bailey
(T-G Photo by Brian Mosely)
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"We've come up with a game plan; mostly, our job is resource management," Johnson said, such as looking at what volunteer help would be available as well as facilities that would be used in the event of an outbreak.

Two years ago, Bell Buckle formed an avian flu preparedness committee to look at what would have to be done in the event of a pandemic, focusing on the needs of their neighbors and the situations in different households. The county's plan involves working with the school system, industry, retail businesses and the health department.

The county and state will have four areas of responsibility: Actual disaster management, which will be run from the EMA building on Railroad Avenue; community volunteerism; medical community awareness; and training to manage a pandemic.

"A pandemic is a completely different animal," Bailey said. The 1918 Spanish flu, the 1947 Asian flu and the 1973 swine flu are considered pandemics. Compared to the annual flu, there is a much higher risk of fatality with the pandemic outbreaks.

"Viruses replicate themselves," according to Dr. Bailey. "One thing we do know is that viruses exist for one reason only, and that's to exist." Once a virus is stimulated by an uncomfortable environment, it will adjust to it, and Bailey says one of the adjustments that the H5N1 virus has made is that it is now transmissible through human cell receptors to other humans.

"That's a big leap that no one hoped we would see," Bailey said. "That appears to be what has happened."

The latest outbreak of the deadly virus is in Pakistan. Bailey said there is no evidence that it is passed from birds to humans, but rather from person to person. The H5N1 virus is no longer just in birds, but also in dogs, along with some cat species in northern Europe, he added.

The H5N1 strain reemerged in the human population in the year 2000 in Thailand. "Since that time to date, 61.8 percent is the mortality rate that the world population has experienced in these very sporadic outbreaks around the world," Bailey explained.

The only thing that approaches that high fatality rate was the Black Plague of the Middle Ages, he added. The 1918 flu pandemic killed about 55 million worldwide in a nine to ten month period. "The U.S. lost 680,000 during that timeframe," Bailey said.

The 1918 outbreak was complicated by the fact there was no vaccine for it. But today there are medications that will "somewhat mitigate" the illness and keep the death toll down. Two companies are doing "great work" in creating a vaccine, but if the virus changes again, it would be useless.

One problem that affects Bedford County more than any other location in the state is the population of privately-owned chickens, with more than one million "backyard chickens" or "ground flocks" in the county.

Commercial poultry operations, such as those which supply Tyson, are enclosed and in a controlled environment, with the birds being vaccinated three times during their 11.5-week life cycle, and thereby pose a reduced risk.

The state agriculture department says that there is twice the commercial chicken production in Bedford County than any other county in Tennessee, Bailey explained. However, the backyard birds can average in number from 15 to 500 at any location.

Bailey said the backyard chickens have interaction with wild birds through water sources like ponds and streams, "and there is a very definite transmission route there." Bailey said that situation causes him more concern than commercial chicken operations.

During a recent briefing in Nashville, Bailey was told by the state agriculture department that the H5N1 virus has already been found in the remains of dead birds in Tennessee. The state is directly in the path of the flyover route for many birds heading south for the winter, Bailey explained.

"Those birds are the Typhoid Mary," Bailey said. "They don't get sick, but they carry it." But Bailey added that he doesn't want to panic the public, explaining that the infected birds carry a "low pathology" version of the virus, in which there is a low threat of death to humans.

Part 2 will cover what the public could expect to see when a pandemic occurs. More information about Avian Flu and pandemics can be found at www.pandemicflu.gov .

Comments

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WHEN WE SEE A DEAD TYSON- TRUCK- CHICKEN ON THE ROAD SHOULD WE WORRY IF IT HAS CONTRACTED AVIAN FLU OR HAS IT DIED OF OTHER CAUSES?WOULD EATING AN AVIAN FLU INFECTED BIRD(AFTER COOKING IT)GIVE ONE AVIAN FLU???

-- Posted by grandpat on Mon, May 19, 2008, at 5:18 PM

I went to a training about the avien flu given to daycare workers about a month or two ago. They have people who are montoring the birds in Alaska because they feel as if this how it will enter the US. Then they showed us the migratory patterns of birds and Tn is part of that pattern. It was really interisting to find out how it could affect us all. Because there is no vaccination to prevent this as of yet and also because of how long it takes to come up with a vaccine after it mutates it could be devasting. They told us how schools could shut down and buisnesses close until they get control of the situation. When I get to work tomorrow I will see if there is website to post so everyone can read the info. It has a lot of info in the packets we got.

-- Posted by For the kids on Mon, May 19, 2008, at 6:12 PM

Spread of avian flu by drinking water:

Proved awareness to ecology and transmission is necessary to understand the spread of avian flu. For this it is insufficient exclusive to test samples from wild birds, poultry and humans for avian flu viruses. Samples from the known abiotic vehicles also have to be analysed. There are plain links between the cold, rainy seasons as well as floods and the spread of avian flu. That is just why abiotic vehicles have to be analysed. The direct biotic transmission from birds, poultry or humans to humans can not depend on the cold, rainy seasons or floods. Water is a very efficient abiotic vehicle for the spread of viruses - in particular of fecal as well as by mouth, nose and eyes excreted viruses.

Infected birds and poultry can everywhere contaminate the drinking water. All humans have very intensive contact to drinking water. Spread of avian flu by drinking water can explain small clusters in households too. Proving viruses in water is difficult because of dilution. If you find no viruses you can not be sure that there are not any. On the other hand in water viruses remain viable for a long time. Water has to be tested for influenza viruses by cell culture and in particular by the more sensitive molecular biology method PCR.

There is a widespread link between avian flu and water, e.g. in Egypt to the Nile delta or Indonesia to residential districts of less prosperous humans with backyard flocks and without central water supply as in Vietnam: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no12/.... See also the WHO web side: http://www.who.int/water_sanitation_heal... .

Transmission of avian flu by direct contact to infected poultry is an unproved assumption from the WHO. There is no evidence that influenza primarily is transmitted by saliva droplets: "Transmission of influenza A in human beings" http://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf... .

Avian flu infections may increase in consequence to increase of virus circulation. In hot climates/the tropics flood-related influenza is typical after extreme weather and floods. Virulence of influenza viruses depends on temperature and time. Special in cases of local water supplies with "young" and fresh H5N1 contaminated water from low local wells, cisterns, tanks, rain barrels, ponds, rivers or rice paddies this pathway can explain small clusters in households. At 24�C e.g. in the tropics the virulence of influenza viruses in water amount to 2 days. In temperate climates for "older" water from central water supplies cold water is decisive to virulence of viruses. At 7�C the virulence of influenza viruses in water amount to 14 days.

Human to human and contact transmission of influenza occur - but are overvalued immense. In the course of influenza epidemics in Germany, recognized clusters are rare, accounting for just 9 percent of cases e.g. in the 2005 season. In temperate climates the lethal H5N1 virus will be transferred to humans via cold drinking water, as with the birds in February and March 2006, strong seasonal at the time when drinking water has its temperature minimum.

The performance to eliminate viruses from the drinking water processing plants regularly does not meet the requirements of the WHO and the USA/USEPA. Conventional disinfection procedures are poor, because microorganisms in the water are not in suspension, but embedded in particles. Even ground water used for drinking water is not free from viruses.

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?Ne...

Ducks and rice [paddies = flooded by water] major factors in bird flu outbreaks, says UN agency

Ducks and rice fields may be a critical factor in spreading H5N1

26 March 2008 -- Ducks, rice [fields, paddies = flooded by water! Farmers on work drink the water from rice paddies!] and people -- and not chickens -- have emerged as the most significant factors in the spread of avian influenza in Thailand and Viet Nam, according to a study carried out by a group of experts from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and associated research centres.

"Mapping H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza risk in Southeast Asia: ducks, rice and people" also finds that these factors are probably behind persistent outbreaks in other countries such as Cambodia and Laos.

The study, which examined a series of waves of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza in Thailand and Viet Nam between early 2004 and late 2005, was initiated and coordinated by FAO senior veterinary officer Jan Slingenbergh and just published in the latest issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States.

Through the use of satellite mapping, researchers looked at a number of different factors, including the numbers of ducks, geese and chickens, human population size, rice cultivation and geography, and found a strong link between duck grazing patterns and rice cropping intensity.

In Thailand, for example, the proportion of young ducks in flocks was found to peak in September-October; these rapidly growing young ducks can therefore benefit from the peak of the rice harvest in November-December [at the beginning of the cold: Thailand, Viet Nam, Cambodia, Laos are situated -- different from Indonesia -- in the northern hemisphere].

"These peaks in congregation of ducks indicate periods in which there is an increase in the chances for virus release and exposure, and rice paddies often become a temporary habitat for wild bird species," the agency said in a news release.

"We now know much better where and when to expect H5N1 flare-ups, and this helps to target prevention and control," said Mr. Slingenbergh. "In addition, with virus persistence becoming increasingly confined to areas with intensive rice-duck agriculture in eastern and south-eastern Asia, evolution of the H5N1 virus may become easier to predict."

He said the findings can help better target control efforts and replace indiscriminate mass vaccination.

FAO estimates that approximately 90 per cent of the world's more than 1 billion domestic ducks are in Asia, with about 75 per cent of that in China and Viet Nam. Thailand has about 11 million ducks.

Dipl.-Ing. Wilfried Soddemann - Epidemiologist - Free Science Journalist soddemann-aachen@t-online.de

-- Posted by wilfriedsoddemann on Tue, May 20, 2008, at 1:09 AM

there is NO documented case where the virus has spread from animal to human....

-- Posted by shelbyvillesports on Thu, May 22, 2008, at 1:05 PM