Bird flu's potential impact could be massive

Bedford County Emergency Management Director Scott Johnson and Avian Influenza Planning Project Manager Dr. Carl Bailey have been examining what difficulties the county will likely face in the event of an Avian Flu pandemic.

The pair stressed they do not want to frighten the public about what an outbreak of the deadly virus could mean, but encourage preparedness for everyone -- no matter if they are involved in government, business, civic groups or just protecting their families.

Social isolation

A pandemic is an epidemic that covers a wide geographic area and affects a large portion of the population, like the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak.

The 1918 flu pandemic, commonly referred to as the Spanish flu, was first found in the United States, appeared in Sierra Leone and France, and then spread to nearly every part of the world, according to Wikipedia.

It was caused by an unusually severe and deadly influenza strain. Many of its victims were healthy young adults, in contrast to most influenza outbreaks, which predominantly affect juvenile, elderly, or otherwise weakened patients.

The Spanish flu lasted from March 1918 to June 1920. It is estimated that anywhere from 20 to 100 million people were killed worldwide

When that occurred, America was still mostly an agricultural society, and travel was comparatively limited.

Today, people interact with each other socially a great deal more, Johnson said. Because of this, officials say "social isolation," or staying at home, is one of the best ways to stop the spread of the virus.

In such an event, the county would close schools and any kind of excessive public gatherings to keep people apart.

"When you get within that magic 36-inch distance (from another person), you transmit it," Bailey said.

Bailey corrected the assumption that the reason so many people died in 1918 was the quality of medical care.

"The medical ... is no better or worse than it was ... but we do have many more things in place to alert the public," he said, adding that by the time people were aware there was a pandemic in 1918, it was already well underway.

Johnson said that typically when flu or virus outbreaks occur, administrators would shut down schools for just a few days to let the bug die out.

But the time frame for a pandemic is much longer, Bailey explained. According to the Centers for Disease Control, local planners should prepare for three waves of the virus, each lasting from eight to 16 weeks.

Economic damage

Bailey said the single biggest issue right now is working with industry in the county. When meeting with the heads of these companies, Bailey asks what would happen if they came in on a Monday morning and 15 percent of their workforce was gone.

"By Tuesday, it's 20 percent and by Thursday it's 35 percent ... gone. You've got no people to produce wages," Bailey said. He also referred to a recent economic study that looked at how long businesses could survive without cash flow. Only large businesses would be able to cope for 12 days without cash flow, Bailey said.

However, the small businesses would have to close their doors and could possibly never reopen.

"The economic damage to this county, if we really don't get it together, would be far and away the worst damage we would suffer," the doctor said. "The death, the grief, the loss will happen. That we will get through ... our 130 pastors will be tasked to the limit."

But it could take years to recover from the economic impact. Bailey said he's "ruined many a chicken dinner meeting with community groups" by relating these painful facts.

"I try to wake these people up, but I also tell them that there is light at the end of the tunnel," Bailey said. "Just don't get near anyone and you won't transmit it."

Mobility means danger

Bailey says because of the change of our mode of living, with much more mobility, things are considerably different than during the 1918 pandemic.

"Medicine has not changed that much -- there was no vaccine then and there is none now," Bailey said, but people are less than six hours away from an international airport and access to any part of the world.

"There's an enormous number of issues that federal and state agencies are working with regarding what to do if a pandemic hits somewhere," Bailey said, giving an example of someone flying into Nashville from an overseas outbreak and then driving to Shelbyville an hour later.

"You begin to think about all those situations," Bailey said, calling it a "Pandora's box." Just one example to ponder is the number of 18-wheelers that move through Shelbyville each day.

"How many trucks have to arrive here on a daily basis to feed us? What would happen if trucks didn't show up for three days? All of our stores would have no food on the shelves. It's a horror story."

On our own

Johnson said in a normal disaster response, the event is extremely localized. But in the occurrence of a pandemic, "everything you read from the federal government, to the state, city and county is 'don't expect any help' from the federal government or the state because everybody is going to be in the same boat."

When there is a large local disaster, such as a tornado or other event, counties can rely on mutual aid from neighboring areas, but in the case of a pandemic, everyone will have their hands full.

"We have to be prepared to be on our own," Johnson said. "Federal officials have been real good saying that since Katrina." Counties in Tennessee are in various stages of planning, with some counties "not doing anything," Johnson mentioned.

"You know you're never going to be totally ready," he said.

Bailey said he's been working in emergency management for decades and has always heard from the federal government that if people can hold out for 72 hours in a given situation, help will be on the way.

"This is the first time we have heard in repeated meetings and briefings that there will be no help available. You will truly be on your own," Bailey stressed.

As a result, many civic and faith-based groups would be turned to for help during a pandemic. A plan is being worked out with assigned duties for each organization. But no matter how proactive they are with their planning, Bailey admits they will not be able to save everyone.

Bailey has contacted all the churches in the county, which will then recruit people from their congregations to become the workforce for emergency management, from very minimal-risk tasks such as telephone work to a high-risk job such as delivering food to an infected family.

"The most important thing we can do is prepare as much as we can," Bailey said.