Bailey spoke to Bedford County Board of Commissioners' rules and legislative committee Tuesday night; the committee asked that he make a presentation to the full commission in the near future.

For example, Bailey said, a flu serious enough to close a small business with limited cash flow for 7-10 days could overwhelm it and leave it unable to re-open.

A pandemic refers to a massive outbreak of disease over a large area. There were three influenza pandemics in the 20th century: a 1918 outbreak that left 51 million dead, a 1954 outbreak that killed 2 million, and a 1973 outbreak that left 1 million dead.

Bailey said he never hears experts use the word "if" when talking about another pandemic. It's generally accepted that there will be a pandemic at some point. The question is not "if" but "when."

Lynn Burns, emergency response coordinator for Tennessee Department of Health, also spoke Tuesday night. He said a pandemic could occur in three to four waves over two years and that Tennessee's projected death toll would be 38,000.

The current concern is about the so-called "bird flu" virus, called H5N1. It's present in birds and can be transmitted from birds to humans. As it adapts to changing conditions, it could become a Type A virus, easily spread from one human to another.

Bedford County, because of its large poultry industry, is at particular risk, said Bailey. More commercial fowl are raised in Bedford County than the next two Tennessee counties combined. Some are in poultry houses, but there are also a large number in backyard flocks. In addition, he said that fighting birds -- imported as "exotic birds," since cockfighting is illegal -- can come from infected areas of the world and aren't inspected in the way agricultural birds are. Bedford County also is located in the path that many birds take from Canada south.

Most disasters -- a tornado or even a hurricane -- are somewhat limited in the geographic area they cover, allowing federal and state officials and private charities to bring a focus of relief and support. But Bailey said officials have told him a pandemic will be so large in scale that individual communities can't expect support from outside.

"We will be on our own," said Bailey.

Among those humans who have gotten the bird flu from birds, there is a high mortality rate.

There are limited medical responses to a bird flu pandemic. Right now there's no vaccine; there is promising research being done, said Bailey, but then again there's no guarantee the flu won't become resistant to a drug or vaccine after it's in use.

The key to stopping the flu will be stopping the social interactions through which it is transmitted.

"We want to keep people isolated," Bailey said. "That's the only success story."

The first step to that may mean closing schools -- possibly for an extended period of time. That could create child care problems for some of the emergency and medical workers who will be most needed during a pandemic. Bailey is working with area churches to develop volunteer programs that could help provide child care in the event of a pandemic. Other ways volunteers could help might include "meals on wheels" or medicine delivery programs to allow people to stay at home as much as possible.

A pandemic could cause massive absenteeism at area factories and businesses. Bailey said a factory could see 35 to 40 percent absenteeism for up to eight or nine weeks.

Bailey has already begun making contact with human resources personnel for the county's largest employers, and recently spoke to a local association of HR managers.

Burns commended Bedford County EMA for its proactive approach to the crisis and said it has been "by far the most progressive in taking this bull by the horns, and trying to wrestle with it."

He said Bedford County is the only county in the state with a comprehensive plan for working with industry in the event of a pandemic.

The rules committee asked County Mayor Eugene Ray to schedule Bailey to speak on the issue to the full commission on a night when there are no quarterly department reports which might take up time.