Rumors abound about Apple tablet

By the time you read this column, Apple Inc. founder Steve Jobs will have made a big announcement, widely expected to be a tablet computer.

It's acknowledged that Apple's iPod, in large part, changed how Americans listen to music, and the iPhone ushered in a new age of smart cell phones which are the equivalent of pocket computers. So some of the hype and speculation in recent weeks about Apple's new announcement has been overwhelming. The device will, if you listen to some pundits, do away with books, newspapers and magazines as we know them, and will usher in a new digital age.

Only time will tell whether Apple's new tablet is a game-changer, like the iPhone or the iPod, or perhaps a bit of new technology ahead of its time, like the Newton. The Newton, released by Apple in 1993, was an early attempt at a PDA. Supposedly, it was a good product, but the conventional wisdom is that it was ahead of its time, and its handwriting recognition features were not quite up to snuff, drawing mockery from "Doonesbury" and "The Simpsons."

Palm came along a few years later with what turned out to be the definitive PDA. Palm got around the handwriting recognition problems by inventing its own alphabet, Grafitti, which substituted more distinctive squiggles for a few of the harder-to-distinguish letters. It took some getting used to, but once you learned how to use it it was quite fast and elegant. Eventually, of course, the PDA market and the cell phone market converged, with the Blackberry becoming a must-have for business types, and then the iPhone, with its touch screen and elegant design, bringing the market full circle back to Apple. The iPhone has succeeded for Apple where the Newton failed.

Entirely by touch

According to most speculation, Apple's tablet computer will be a little like an oversized iPhone. It won't have a physical keyboard; it will be entirely controlled by the touch screen. A company called Flurry Analytics, which application developers hire to track usage of their programs, has some circumstantial evidence that the tablet runs a slightly-improved version of the iPhone operating system, and could therefore use many of the same applications.

The tablet, too big to put in your pocket, would be a natural competitor for the Amazon's successful Kindle e-reader. The Kindle has a black and white screen and allows one to download and read books, and some newspapers. But Apple's tablet -- based on reports that Apple has ordered a large number of appropriately-sized color display screens -- would be in color and could display splashy magazine layouts and interactive features like video and slide shows.

Is this the beginning of a new technology? Or is it, like Newton, a false start for something ahead of its time?

More rumors

Rumors are that the device could be rather expensive, especially if you also have to pay a cell phone provider every month for data or Internet access. AT&T officials said last month that, in certain specific markets, data usage from iPhones has overburdened its system, and a tablet computer would presumably use even more bandwidth. Any cell phone provider working with Apple's tablet may need to charge enough for access that it will be able to take care of such heavy demand going forward.

Of course, there is also some speculation that Apple will price the tablet high to begin with -- since some "early adopters" will pay the price regardless -- and then eventually lower the price to increase sales. But even the lower price may be more than some are willing to pay.

Today's big announcement will be exciting regardless, we won't know for many months whether it's the shape of things to come.

--John I. Carney is city editor of the Times-Gazette and covers county government. He is also the author of the self-published novel "Soapstone." His personal web site is lakeneuron.com.