Coronavirus case count at 200 locally

Tuesday, May 5, 2020

The federal government’s “Guidelines for Opening Up America Again” advised state and local governments to wait for a 14-day “downward trajectory” of cases. That has not happened in Tennessee and it hasn’t happened in Bedford County. The trajectory in Tennessee and Bedford County is steadily upward.

In Bedford County, in the 14-day period from Sunday, April 19 to Sunday, May 3, there’s been a 181.7 percent increase increase in the number of cases documented through testing. On April 19 the number of cases was 71. Now, 14 days later the case count is 200.

In Tennessee, in the 14-day period from Sunday, April 19 to Sunday, May 3 there’s been an 86.4 percent increase in the number of cases documented through testing. On April 19 there were 7,070 cases and 148 deaths. On May 3, the case count was up to 13,177 and 210 people had died.

Three-day jumps

In Bedford County, in the three days from Friday, May 1 to Sunday, May 3 the case count rose by 8.7 percent — from 184 to 200 — and one more person died.

Tennessee’s three day results (May 1 - May 3) were worse than Bedford County’s, up nearly 11 percent — from 11,891 to 13,177. From Friday to Sunday the number of deaths from the virus rose from 204 to 210.

Bedford County continues to stand at ninth in the highest case count of Tennessee’s 95 counties.

Another gauge

To take into account that more testing will result in higher positive numbers, the federal guidelines also allowed for a “downward trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period….” In Tennessee, on April 19 the state’s testing program had yielded 7,070 positives of the 97,098 tests administered — 7.28 percent. By May 3, 14 days later, in Tennessee there had been 204,607 tests yielding 13,177 positives — 6.44 percent. Still far from a significant downward trajectory.

National

As of Sunday, May 3, there have been 1.16 million cases of COVID-19 and 67,700 deaths.

Over the weekend it was falsely reported that the CDC had, without explanation, drastically reduced the number of COVID-19 deaths. The bogus story reportedly came from right-wing media personality Tim Young. Young’s report stated that the CDC had cut the number from 64,000 to 37,000. Young reportedly got this information from the National Vital Statistics System, not from the CDC. The National Vital Statistics System reports are subject to a delay of several weeks as the agency does not report deaths until they receive a completed death certificate. The CDC reports are taken daily from state agencies.