The number of new cases of COVID-19 reported in Bedford County in the seven days from Dec. 16 through Dec. 22 fell by 109 from the previous week but what may seem at first to be a sign of improvement is quashed because the number of tests conducted was down by 319. The positivity rate (the percentage of tests that came back positive) was nearly the same: 30.3 percent for Dec. 9 through Dec. 15, and 29.5 percent for Dec. 16 through Dec. 22.

Tennessee remains at number one in the nation for the number of new cases per 100,000 population in the last 14 days.

The daily average number of active cases week-to-week in Bedford County for the last 12 weeks has risen precipitously from 72 active cases (Sept. 30 to Oct. 6) to 589 cases in the seven day period from Dec. 16 through Dec. 22.

“The World Health Organization recommended in May that the percent positive remain below 5 percent for at least two weeks before governments consider reopening,” according to Johns Hopkins University. The rates in Bedford County have hit that goal just once since Sept. 30. In the week of Sept. 30 through Oct. 7, when the county’s positivity rate was 4.9 percent. Since then the rate has risen steadily to its current high of around 30 percent.

Positivity rates are deemed by public health officials to be one important tool to judge the extent of the virus but they are subject to error due to human behavior. Most people who go for tests are feeling sick, or have a reason to be worried about contracting the virus such as contact with an infected person or are in a high risk group due to age or underlying health conditions or because of employment at a nursing home or other healthcare facility. From these groups of people you will get more positives than you would in the general community. To get an accurate picture of the severity of the problem you have to consider other factors such as the number of new cases and deaths, for example.

The rising number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 does not offer any indication of improvement in Tennessee. In the most recent 14 days (from Dec. 9 through Dec. 22) the deaths of 1,160 Tennesseans were attributed to the coronavirus. In the previous 14 days (Nov. 25 through Dec. 8) the deaths of 735 Tennesseans were attributed to the coronavirus. Four weeks ago, from Nov. 25 through Dec. 1, the deaths of 264 Tennesseans were attributed to the coronavirus. With the deaths of 654 Tennesseans attributed to COVID-19 in the most recent week of Dec. 16 through Dec. 22, the increase is 147.7 percent in four weeks.

Since Dec. 1, testing in Tennessee has identified 159,256 new cases, 86,405 in the last 11 days. From Dec. 1 through Dec. 22, the state reports 781,427 tests which resulted in a positivity rate of 20 percent.

Since Dec. 1, in Bedford County, 151 school age children have tested positive for COVID-19.