COVID spike sets records

Saturday, November 14, 2020
The total daily number of active cases in seven day periods in Bedford County has gone up 202 percent since the first week of October.
T-G Graphs by Terence Corrigan

The COVID-19 numbers are all going in the wrong direction in the state of Tennessee, including Bedford County. The metrics show clearly that the coronavirus has more than doubled its reach in Tennessee in the last six weeks.

The rising numbers in Bedford County are also startling.

In Bedford County, the average number of active cases per day this last week compared with six weeks earlier is up 202.5 percent. The Average daily number of active cases over seven days ( Nov. 5 to Nov. 11) was 216. The average daily number of active cases over seven days five weeks earlier ( Oct. 1 to Oct. 7) was just over 71. The highest number in any seven days was the period from Oct. 29 through Nov. 4 when the daily average was 223.

Bedford County has not avoided the surge in COVID-19. The number of new confirmed cases last week was up 319 percent from five weeks earlier. From a daily average of 37 to 155 in the most recent week.

Since Oct. 29, the state health department reports, 81 school age children (ages 5 to 18) in Bedford County have tested positive for the coronavirus.

The Bedford County positivity rate (the percentage of tests that come back positive) continues on average at over 14 percent over the last 14 days. Public health officials say 10 percent or less is needed to ensure accuracy, with 5 percent or less preferred. Anything greater than a 10 percent positivity rate means that itís highly likely that there are many more cases that are not being discovered. In the state health departmentís Thursday report, the positivity rate in Tennessee was 13.46 percent.

The number of newly confirmed cases in Bedford County is also in a steep ascent. From Oct. 1 through Oct. 7 there were 37 new cases confirmed in Bedford County. In the most recent seven days there were 155 ó a 319 percent increase in six weeks. On Thursday this week (Nov. 12) there were 21 additional cases discovered in testing. On Thursday only 50 tests were conducted in Bedford County.

The death rate from COVID-19 is rising rapidly in Tennessee. In the seven days from Nov. 5 to Nov. 11 on average 40 Tennesseans died every day. Five weeks earlier, the first seven days of October, on average, 27 Tennesseans died every day.

Bedford County has had 0.7 percent of the total number of cases in Tennessee. Twenty-four residents of Bedford County have died due to the coronavirus. The largest percentage of the stateís cases have been in Shelby County ó 14 percent ó followed by Davidson County with 12.4 percent. Nearby Rutherford County has accounted for 4.9 percent of the stateís cases.

Tennessee is bright red

Tennessee is still deep in the Red Zone for its number of active cases of COVID-19.

From an average of 1,617 cases per day in the first seven days of October to a daily average of 3,368, the state of Tennessee case count has gone up 108 percent.

In the Tennessee, the daily death rates are reaching new highs. From Nov. 5 through Nov. 11, every day, on average, 40 people died from COVID-19. Five weeks earlier, Oct. 1 through Oct. 7, the daily death count, on average, was 27. Thatís a 48 percent increase in the last six weeks. On Veterans Day, the state recorded the highest number of deaths (89) of any day since the pandemic arrived in Tennessee.

Statewide, in the last 14 days, 735 Tennesseans were hospitalized with COVID-19. On Nov. 11, there were 10,895 Tennesseans in hospitals.

Public health officials, including the White House Coronavirus Task Force, consider states with a rate of 100 cases per 100,000 to be in the Red Zone ó the most severe situation with uncontrolled spread. The rate in Tennessee on Nov. 11 was 444 cases per 100,000. That rate is an 18 percent increase over the prior seven days when the rate averaged 376 per 100,000.

Statewide, the number of new cases each week has nearly doubled in the last six weeks. The weekly average of new cases in the seven days from Oct. 1 through Oct. 7 was 11,316. In the most recent seven days (Nov. 5 through Nov. 11) the number was 23,579. In the last seven days, 24,954 Tennesseans have tested positive for the coronavirus.

The nation

The highest death rate in the nation has been New York State at 286 deaths per 100,000 residents. The lowest rate has been Vermont with a death rate of 9 per 100,000. Tennessee, so far has been in the middle of the pack (ranked 28th) with a death rate of 55 per 100,000 population.