The enduring and remarkable NBA Finals begin this week, but you could be forgiven for not knowing beforehand. The winner of the Western Conference, the Oklahoma City Thunder who are led by league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, take on the Eastern Conference champs, the Indiana Pacers, with Game 1 tipping off on Thursday night in Oklahoma City at 7:30 p.m. CT on ABC. 

Unfortunately, one of the biggest storylines coming into these Finals is not necessarily about the actual basketball that will be played, but about the expected television ratings. From an executive standpoint at both the league office and ESPN, this concern is understandable from a purely financial point of view. However, the vast majority of us do not fit that description (as basketball lovers, who cares about ratings?) so let’s take a look at how this tantalizing series might play out on the court. 

There are all kinds of numbers that attempt to quantify the historic season of dominance that the Thunder have had this year – a 68-14 record in the regular season that is good enough for a tie for 5th-most wins all-time, an NBA-record 12.87 point differential in the regular season which dethroned the previous mark of 12.28 set by the 1970-71 LA Lakers, or the second-best net rating in league history at 12.8, only behind the 13.4 mark set by the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls who finished 72-10. The point is, this Thunder team is already having one of the most impressive seasons in NBA history, and the only thing missing at this point is the ultimate goal – hoisting the Larry O’Brien trophy.

Thus, the Thunder are heavy favorites to down the Pacers, currently sitting at -750 to win the title in the betting market according to FanDuel Sportsbook. These are the biggest odds for The Finals since 2018 when the Golden State Warriors were -1,000 favorites over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Those Warriors ended up producing the first sweep in The Finals since 2007. 

Coming off of a resounding Western Conference Finals in which OKC dispatched of the Minnesota Timberwolves in five games, all the talk has been about when – not if – the Thunder will clinch the franchise’s first NBA Championship since moving from Seattle before the 2008-09 season. The vast majority of predictions I’ve seen include the Thunder winning in four or five games which is understandable considering how loaded this team is. 

However, this is a matchup between the two best teams in the league since the turn of the calendar. OKC is 41-9 since January 1, 2025, and Indiana is 46-17. In the postseason, both teams won their respective conferences with just four losses apiece. 

Despite being heavy underdogs, the Pacers won’t be a pushover. Led by Tyrese Haliburton and East Finals’ MVP and 2019 NBA Champion with Toronto, Pascal Siakam, Indiana has peaked at the right time. They currently boast the second-best offensive rating in the playoffs at 118.1 – ahead of third-place OKC’s 117.0 rating – sitting behind only Cleveland. Indiana made quick work of the 64-win Cavs in the second round, taking down the East’s top-seed in just five games. The Pacers then took care of the third-seeded Knicks in the ECF after six games to clinch the franchise’s first trip to The Finals since 2000.

The best part about watching the Pacers is their playstyle. They relentlessly push the tempo and pace, even in the playoffs when games tend to slow down and become half-court affairs, and it all starts with Tyrese Haliburton. The fourth-year point guard from Iowa State was acquired from Sacramento via trade in 2022 which saw Indiana send Domantas Sabonis, Jeremy Lamb, and Justin Holiday to the Kings in exchange for Haliburton, Buddy Hield, and Tristan Thompson. In essence, the trade was Sabonis for Haliburton, and the Pacers have resoundingly won that deal. In his two full seasons with the Pacers, Haliburton has led them to two-consecutive Eastern Conference Finals, and is now one series win away from securing the franchise’s first NBA Championship. Siakam, acquired via trade from the Toronto Raptors at last year’s trade deadline, has fit in seamlessly with the up-tempo Pacers in his first full season under Rick Carlisle. 

Tyrese Haliburton (0) goes up for a dunk in Game 6 against the Knicks. Haliburton averages 18.8 PPG, 9.8 APG, and 5.7 RPG in the 2025 NBA playoffs, leading the Pacers to their second NBA Finals appearance in franchise history (2000).

@Pacers on Twitter

That’s another interesting storyline of this series as well – the coaching matchup. Mark Daigneault, who has been coaching in the Thunder organization since 2014, was named the head coach before the 2020-21 season and has guided OKC to back-to-back one seeds in the hyper-competitive Western Conference, finally breaking through to OKC’s first Finals appearance since 2012 in his fifth season at the helm. Carlisle first reached The Finals on the sidelines as an assistant for the Pacers under Larry Bird in 2000, then led the Dallas Mavericks to a surprise championship in 2011. After three years in Detroit, Carlisle returned to Indiana as the head coach from 2003-2007, compiling a record of 181-147 before being let go. He was in Dallas for 14 seasons from 2007-2021 before stepping down and returning to Indiana before the 2021-22 season.

With a decorated veteran head coach on one side against a fifth-year head coach in his first Finals appearance on the other, this series could come down to the apparent coaching advantage for the Pacers. 

Or, it could just not matter. OKC has the best defense in the league, and their dominance on that end of the floor has been exemplified in the postseason with a 106.2 rating, and they allow just 106 points per game to their opponents. The Thunder also had two players named to the All-Defensive Team this season with Lu Dort on the first-team and Jalen Williams being named to the second-team. Alex Caruso, who has probably been the Thunder’s best defensive player in these playoffs, along with second-year guard Cason Wallace, create a suffocating backcourt for any team to try and attack. If you do manage to get into the paint somehow, OKC has all-defensive caliber player Chet Holmgren waiting to block or alter any shot around the rim. The 7-foot Holmgren averages 2.0 blocks per game in these playoffs, and he has the ability to switch onto the perimeter as well. 

If any team outside of the Denver Nuggets can give the Thunder a problem on the defensive end, it might just be the Pacers. That may be me grasping at straws hoping for a fun and competitive series, but Indiana does the one thing you can’t do against OKC if you want to have any hope of staying competitive – the Pacers don’t turn the ball over. 

In the Thunder’s 16 playoff games, they have forced an average of 18 turnovers per game, turning those extra possessions into 23 points per game on average. OKC especially feeds off of a raucous home crowd on the defensive end, but the Pacers have averaged just under 12 turnovers per game in their 16 playoff games despite their up-tempo playstyle. The Thunder’s defensive activity and physicality is at a different level than anyone else in the league, but if Indiana can continue their clean offensive attack, they should have a chance to stay competitive. The Pacers have shot 40% as a team from downtown in the postseason, and if they can continue at or near that stellar clip, Oklahoma City may be in for more of a dogfight than they anticipated. 

Despite being one of the best shooting teams in the regular season, the Thunder have struggled from behind the arc in these playoffs, shooting just 33% from outside as a team. In spite of that number, OKC is still in The Finals, proving they don’t necessarily need to be connecting from three-point land to win games, and that’s what makes this team so scary. 

League MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 29.8 PPG in the playoffs to go along with nearly seven assists and nearly six rebounds. He spearheads the offensive attack for OKC, and if his running mate, Jalen Williams, is clicking on that end as well like he showed against Minnesota in the previous round, they will probably be too much for Indiana to overcome. 

Lastly, these two teams are outliers. Two smaller markets are competing on basketball’s biggest stage, and that’s reflected in the 2024-25 payroll. OKC has the 25th most-expensive payroll while Indiana has the 22nd. For reference, Portland and Chicago are 23rd and 24th, respectively, and both teams missed the playoffs entirely. Meanwhile, the Phoenix Suns had the most expensive team in the sport and also missed the postseason. In this new era of teambuilding, the smaller markets have the advantage simply because they have had to build teams with financial limitations for years already. Enjoy this.

I’m hoping for a fun and competitive Finals with excellent basketball, and the personal affinity to underdogs has me leaning towards Indiana on the rooting interest scale. However, I can’t deny the historically dominant season OKC has had to this point, and because of that, I have to take the Thunder to win The Finals in Game 5. I think the Pacers win Game 3 at home to make things interesting, but I wouldn’t be shocked if this series went six or even seven games. Either way, you should be excited for this series between the two best teams in the NBA in 2025, and I hope you tune in with as much enthusiasm as I will.